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China’s Exports Picked Up in June as Logistics Problems Eased

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China’s Exports Picked Up in June as Logistics Problems Eased – WSJ

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Overseas orders to the U.S. and Southeast Asia grew as ports reopened, but economists say such a rebound may not last

Chinese exports rose 17.9% in June compared with a year earlier.

Photo: Cfoto/Zuma Press

SINGAPORE—Chinese exports to the rest of the world grew strongly in June as trade picked up following the easing of pandemic lockdowns and logistics bottlenecks in its ports.

Still, economists say the trade bounce is unlikely to last, as rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks to cool inflation weigh on global growth.

Chinese exports rose 17.9% in June compared with a year earlier, China’s General Administration of Customs said Wednesday. This beat the 12% forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal and exceeded the 16.9% pace recorded in May.

The pickup was led by an increase in exports to the U.S. and countries in Southeast Asia, data showed. Exports to the U.S. rose 19.3% on the year, accelerating from a 15.8% annual pace in May. Export growth to the European Union slowed as an energy crunch caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions in response suppressed consumer and business demand.

Chinese imports rose 1.0% from a year earlier in June, weakening from a 4.1% increase in May, suggesting that demand for foreign goods and services remains weak. That pushed China’s trade surplus to $97.94 billion in June, compared with $78.8 billion in May, much bigger than the $76.9 billion surplus forecast by economists.

The strong export performance adds to signs the economy is recovering in June after stringent Covid-19 restrictions pummeled consumer confidence and created shipping bottlenecks in April and May. Transport of raw materials and finished goods into Shanghai, one of China’s biggest manufacturing hubs and home to the world’s busiest container port, had almost ground to a halt over the two months as Chinese officials shut roads and ordered the city’s 25 million residents to stay home in an effort to curb the spread of the virus.

A Covid-19 outbreak in Shanghai brought one of China’s largest manufacturing and export hubs to a near standstill. The crew aboard a U.S. container ship were stranded at a shipyard, struggling to live and work while under lockdown. Photo composite: Adam Adada

Economists polled by the Journal expect China to report annual growth of 0.9% for the April-to-June period when it releases second-quarter gross domestic product data this Friday. This compares with growth of 4.8% in the first quarter, highlighting the squeeze on the economy from Beijing’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid.

Analysts are downbeat about the prospects for a trade-led revival, which pulled China out of a deep slump in early 2020 when the pandemic first struck. The EU economy is slowing and the U.S. is expected to follow suit as the Fed tightens policy to rein in inflation. Trade data from major exporters including Taiwan and South Korea already point to slowing export growth as the headwinds to global growth intensify.

“Cooling global demand could soon deflate China’s pandemic export boom,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, a senior China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.

—Grace Zhu in Beijing contributed to this article.

Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8


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